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Le cygne noir : deuxième édition : l'impact du très improbable : avec un...

by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | HC | Good

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Numéro de l'objet eBay :373514861438

Dernière mise à jour : juin 20, 2024 04:56:34 HAEAfficher toutes les modificationsAfficher toutes les modifications

Caractéristiques de l'objet

État: Bon

Remarques du vendeur: “Missing dust jacket; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ...

Binding: Hardcover

Weight: 1 lbs

Product Group: Book

IsTextBook: No

ISBN: 1400063515

Book Title: Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility

Book Series: Incerto, Incerto Ser.

Publisher: Random House Publishing Group

Item Length: 9.6 in

Edition: 2

Publication Year: 2007

Format: Hardcover

Language: English

Illustrator: Yes

Item Height: 1.5 in

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Genre: Computers, Business & Economics, Social Science

Topic: Information Theory, Future Studies, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General

Item Weight: 25.2 Oz, 25 oz

Item Width: 6.4 in

Number of Pages: 480 Pages

À propos de ce produit

Product Information

Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it.

Product Identifiers

Publisher

Random House Publishing Group

ISBN-10

1400063515

ISBN-13

9781400063512

eBay Product ID (ePID)

56992376

Product Key Features

Edition

Book Title

Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility

Number of Pages

480 Pages

Language

English

Publication Year

2007

Topic

Information Theory, Future Studies, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General

Illustrator

Yes

Genre

Computers, Business & Economics, Social Science

Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Book Series

Incerto, Incerto Ser.

Format

Hardcover

Dimensions

Item Height

1.5 in

Item Weight

25.2 Oz, 25 oz

Item Length

9.6 in

Item Width

6.4 in

Additional Product Features

Reviews

" The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition.

Publication Date

2007-04-17

Lccn

2006-051093

Series Volume Number

Target Audience

Trade

Dewey Decimal

003/.54

Lc Classification Number

Q375.T35 2007

2007

Description de l'objet du vendeur

Le vendeur assume l'entière responsabilité de cette annonce.

Numéro de l'objet eBay :373514861438

Dernière mise à jour : juin 20, 2024 04:56:34 HAEAfficher toutes les modificationsAfficher toutes les modifications

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par jwthompson982012
mai 10, 2014
Can be a hard book to read, so jump to core concepts listed in this review.
This book can be very dense in many places. Attempting to read it cover-to-cover is a challenge unless you have a lot of spare time to devote to it. Beware that the author has a dry sense of humor. He occasionally slips in deep sarcasm that you might take literally. This is one of those books you really need to read at least 2 times to appreciate it. To get the core concepts quickly, I suggested the following reading approach. 1. Review the Glossary, page 307. Don’t try to memorize the terms yet. Review just so you know which terms you can look up when they are used in the book. 2. Read Mediocristan vs. Extremistan, pp 32 – 37. These 2 terms are the most important concept in the author’s approach to uncertainty. It is important to understand them to grasp many of the author’s arguments ... This book can be very dense in many places. Attempting to read it cover-to-cover is a challenge unless you have a lot of spare time to devote to it. Beware that the author has a dry sense of humor. He occasionally slips in deep sarcasm that you might take literally. This is one of those books you really need to read at least 2 times to appreciate it. To get the core concepts quickly, I suggested the following reading approach. 1. Review the Glossary, page 307. Don’t try to memorize the terms yet. Review just so you know which terms you can look up when they are used in the book. 2. Read Mediocristan vs. Extremistan, pp 32 – 37. These 2 terms are the most important concept in the author’s approach to uncertainty. It is important to understand them to grasp many of the author’s arguments throughout the book. 3. Read How to Learn From a Turkey, pp 40 – 42. This is a canonical example of a Black Swan event. 4. Read Gambling with the Wrong Dice, pp 125 – 129, and then pp 129-130. These passages give a vivid example of the Black Swan problem and how planners focus on the wrong things. 5. Read chapter 10, The Scandal of Prediction, starting on pp 137 - 164. This chapter most closely corresponds to “classical” project planning. I found the following sections within this chapter especially thought provoking. a. I Was “Almost Right”, pp 151 – 154. b. The Character of Predication Errors, pp 159 – 160. c. Other Than That It Was OK, pp 156 – 157. 6. The Three Ball Problem, pp 176 – 179. Gives the scientific basis of why prediction is impossible. I suggest skipping any discussions of philosophers on the first reading. These philosophical segments give background on the genesis of the author’s thinking. They are not necessary for understanding the author’s main points.
par rmoiro
sept. 07, 2022
Jaw dropping topic
Fasten your seatbelts. Exceedingly counterintuitive insights and wisdom. Read slowly and ponder. We've bought 4 copies to give some away to younger family members for their continuing education in Life (and the "used" books were in excellent shape and at bargain price).
Achat vérifié : OuiÉtat : OccasionVendu par : thrift.books
par vertiboy
sept. 15, 2007
Misanthropic and Other Big Words!!
As much as Taleb would have us believe that he is a "practicioner" rather than an "academician" he is no man of the people! This book is not written in plain English and has more academic name-dropping in it than any philosophical treatise I've ever read. That being said, there are some really interesting insights in this book, you just have to wade through lots of babel to get to them. The other thing that annoyed me is that except for the very august and respectable (heavy sarcasm) world of trading, Taleb expresses disdain for just about every other profession there is. Thank goodness he calls to task such low-life organizations and concepts as the Nobel Institute and Gaussian probability!! If you've got a ton of time on your hands, this book might be worth it. Otherwise, I think there ... As much as Taleb would have us believe that he is a "practicioner" rather than an "academician" he is no man of the people! This book is not written in plain English and has more academic name-dropping in it than any philosophical treatise I've ever read. That being said, there are some really interesting insights in this book, you just have to wade through lots of babel to get to them. The other thing that annoyed me is that except for the very august and respectable (heavy sarcasm) world of trading, Taleb expresses disdain for just about every other profession there is. Thank goodness he calls to task such low-life organizations and concepts as the Nobel Institute and Gaussian probability!! If you've got a ton of time on your hands, this book might be worth it. Otherwise, I think there are other ways to learn the same concepts.
par disaster-man
mars 11, 2009
Good if you have a strong stomach
I completely agree with tevans00. If this guy could get over himself long enough to write something for us little people, it would be a five star book. I managed to get through the book and am glad I did. The tragedy of the book is how Taleb challenges the gag reflexes of his readers by his insane arrogance. If he was even a little humble about his knowledge and experiences this would be a five star book worthy of every risk management student and practitioner. In a nutshell the point that he makes very well and then backs up is that just because we haven't seen something happen doesn't mean it won't. A 50% drop in the Dow over four months is a good example of his point. The ramifications are significant.I completely agree with tevans00. If this guy could get over himself long enough to write something for us little people, it would be a five star book. I managed to get through the book and am glad I did. The tragedy of the book is how Taleb challenges the gag reflexes of his readers by his insane arrogance. If he was even a little humble about his knowledge and experiences this would be a five star book worthy of every risk management student and practitioner. In a nutshell the point that he makes very well and then backs up is that just because we haven't seen something happen doesn't mean it won't. A 50% drop in the Dow over four months is a good example of his point. The ramifications are significant.
par dustmop45
oct. 04, 2011
The underlying idea has some merit, but the presentation is boorish.
The Black Swan is very interesting in some respects, but I have to admit that I was turned off by the author's voice - he seems like a pretentious pseudo-intellectual and confuses me by jumping around centuries at a time in the history of man without establishing real connections. I know, he would probably say that is because there are no real connections, they have all been trumped up by the experts. Well, maybe so, but why is he the expert to believe on this? Nevertheless, there is certainly some validity to his "black swan" analogy and theory about unpredictable events. The tone of the book is rather Steven Colbertish - though not always amusing. At this point, I am struggling to want to finish the book.The Black Swan is very interesting in some respects, but I have to admit that I was turned off by the author's voice - he seems like a pretentious pseudo-intellectual and confuses me by jumping around centuries at a time in the history of man without establishing real connections. I know, he would probably say that is because there are no real connections, they have all been trumped up by the experts. Well, maybe so, but why is he the expert to believe on this? Nevertheless, there is certainly some validity to his "black swan" analogy and theory about unpredictable events. The tone of the book is rather Steven Colbertish - though not always amusing. At this point, I am struggling to want to finish the book.